Pakistan's Newest Feudal

Asif Ali Zardari was sworn in as Pakistan's president, replacing Pervez Musharraf.
Zardari's sole qualification is that he is the widower of the slain leader of the Pakistan's People's Party, Benazir Bhutto. Her main qualification for leading her party and twice serving as prime minister was that she was the daughter of the late prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Pakistan is steeped in feudalism and governed by the cult of personality that arises from it. Political parties have no ideology: they are mere extensions of their leaders' love of self and power.
Zardari, the new president, is an erstwhile polo player and playboy whose singular accomplishment in life is that he got Bhutto to marry him. When his wife was prime minister, he was known as "Mr. Ten Percent," for the commissions on state contracts he allegedly took. During the years his wife was in office, he reportedly made off with many tens of millions of dollars that enabled him to, among other things, buy a massive estate in Britain. For years, Swiss authorities wanted him for money laundering. His life seems to have no higher purpose than joining the ranks of the megarich. He is reputed to be the ultimate bullying rogue. His ascension to the presidency is viewed as another sign that Pakistan will join the ranks of other failed states.
And yet, the storyline may not turn out as direly as predicted. Zardari spent 11 years in prison in Pakistan on corruption charges that were never proved in court. Eleven years in prison does something to a man -- even if, in Zardari's case, he was given a private room and bathroom, catered food, and servants. His incarceration was more like house arrest than prison as most imagine it. Still, the experience can steel up the character, teach patience, change one for the worse or for the better.
In fact, for a neophyte politician, Zardari has performed quite credibly in recent months. He has maneuvered himself into the presidency while handpicking the prime minister, Yousef Raza Gillani, from the PPP. And he has cooperated with his political rival, Nawaz Sharif, to topple Musharraf.
Now backed by the United States, Zardari must get the Taliban rebellion in Pakistan's tribal areas under control, calm the fires of separatism and insurgency in the province of Baluchistan, and work with the prime minister to get Pakistan's economy moving again. A life spent getting rich quick provides him little experience in these affairs. Does he even have the emotional will and strength of character to work seriously on matters that would challenge even the best and most well-meaning of politicians?
If Zardari fails, the military might once again step in to fill the power vacuum -- but in a manner different from previous military coups. In Pakistan's muddled history, generals and politicians have taken turns in power, and both have failed. But the West would condemn another coup, and Baluch and Sindhi minorities -- who see the military as a Punjabi conspiracy -- would erupt in nationalist fury if the military seized power. What we might watch for in the months ahead are signs of a creeping, undeclared coup, in which Zardari and opposition leader Sharif engage in a soap opera of political machinations against each other, while the tribal areas and other parts of the country slip into partial anarchy. The military would quietly assert itself, filling the gap in governance. Military rule would prevail, in all but name. That scenario is what the former playboy Zardari threatens to unleash. — Robert D. Kaplan
http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com