Waiting for the Taliban in Afghanistan

Gilles DorronsoroPaper, September 2012

 

Could the Afghan Regime Survive?

At first glance, the mechanisms leading to the fall of the regime seem inexorable. But certain developments could stabilize the situation for a few years, such as a change in Pakistani policy, internal divisions within the Taliban, and a new president. In reality, these developments are unlikely and would come about only as a result of unpredictable events—a major political crisis in Pakistan or the death of the Taliban’s spiritual leader Mullah Omar, for instance.

http://m.ceip.org/publications/?fa=49419