Iranians do not believe they lost or are losing this war

 By Mehrab Sarjov  

A political activist  

Striving for an independent Baluchistan.

Iranians do not believe they lost or are losing this war. Iranians will not change course under the threat of war; they think they can win.

The realistic paths forward include;

 -a powerful military attack to destroy Iranian civil and military infrastructure.

-support Regime change in Iran;

-Support for ethnic groups for the disintegration of Iran.

Iranian elites believe that the US, under President Trump, would not attack Iranian civil infrastructure because, in the Iranian and many Westerners' belief, this war for the US is a war of choice, and the US is already seeking a way out of this war; it is the Iranians who have been denying the US a way out. The American side would compromise on its demand.

Regime change is a complex issue; there is currently no credible opposition party to the Mullah regime. The exiled opposition lacks grassroots support and depends on foreign entities for legitimacy and funding. 

Regional groups, such as the Baluch, Kurds, and Arabs, do have grassroots support. However, many individuals within these groups struggle with self-confidence. They are uncertain about whether to advocate for maintaining a brutal state as a federal entity or to pursue full independence from Iran.

The U.S. and victims of Iranian aggression are hesitant to deploy significant military power and have struggled to unite the Iranian opposition. However, they can support the self-determination of the Baluch, Kurds, and Arabs to achieve lasting stability in the region. With adequate air support, they could remove the Mullahs and end this ongoing conflict.

Iran can inflict pain on its neighbours and the world. As long as this mindset persists in Iran, the suffering for both Iran and its neighbours will increase.

Iran is currently isolated, and there are limits to the effectiveness of pressures. There are three possible paths forward: 

1. The United States could compromise by accepting Iran as a hegemonic nuclear power, leading to a situation where the Gulf States pay a sort of tribute to Iran. 

2. The second option is to pursue regime change in Iran.

3. The third option involves supporting the rights of the Baluch, Kurdish, and Arab peoples to self-determination. 

Current situations are unsustainable; a temporary solution only prolongs the suffering of the Iranian people, the region, and the world. A nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable to everyone.

The Iranian mission to the UN, attempted to monopolise the discussion on minority issues in Iran.

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Mehrab Sarjov

A total of 900 NGOs had registered, but only a few hundred were able to participate.

The Iranian regime, represented by six NGOs ( Discourse Centre Zoroastrian, Youth Centre, Youth Diplomatic Centre, Cultural Centre of Justice, and Iranian Research Centre for minorities) and a colourful delegation from the Iranian mission to the UN, attempted to monopolise the discussion on minority issues in Iran. 

The Iranian mission to the United Nations minority issue delegation included Sara Falahyan, a member of parliament from Iranian-occupied Kurdistan; Bashit Barkhodar (Zoroastrian); Humera Rigi, a Baluch official; and Naser Derakhshan, a former member of parliament from Iran-Shahr.

The Baluch, Kurds, Arabs, Turks, and Azari, among other national groups, confronted the Mission that sought to influence the UN. In response, the Iranian mission released a statement denying the claims regarding the Baluch rights statement.

The Al-Ahwazi community also had a significant presence, revitalising the forum. Among them was a prominent Azari Turk named Araz, who made a noteworthy statement.

Eighteenth session of the Forum on Minority Issues; 27 - 28 November 2025

The Baluch Right

Iran is home to many ethnic nationalities. They are majorities within their regions and represented by political parties that enjoy significant support: the Baluch in Iran are one of several ethnic nationalities. The ruling elites in Tehran have ignored national diversity in pursuit of nation-building policies. They insist on one state, one language, and one culture, which is not acceptable to the different ethnic nationalities within the state: this is part of the conflict within Iran today.

The centralised, unitary nation-state model adopted by Iran cannot meet the needs of ethnic nationalities in the state: the ethnic oppression has progressed to genocide and ethnic cleansing in Baluchistan, Kurdistan and Arab regions.

The people of Iran have stated that Iran’s government does not represent the people: ethnic nationalities have long noted that the government does not define them; Iran has a long history of institutional discrimination based on religion and ethnicity.

The people of Iran have a right to exercise free will, and the Baluch people have a right to exist without fear of persecution: the government denies the Baluch executive offices; they are massively underrepresented in economic institutions.

The people of Iran have a right to exercise free will, and the Baluch people have a right to exist without fear of persecution. Different ethnic groups have historically played leadership roles within the government. They have held cabinet roles in the Foreign Office, National Security, Police, and the Army. The Baluch have denied these roles within government; they are massively underrepresented in economic institutions.

External self-determination is the last resort for ending ethnic oppression.

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Dear Chair and Forum Members,

Iran is home to many ethnic groups, including the Baluch. However, the Baluch people face ongoing repression and exploitation within the state.

The Iranian regime has unjustly accused and executed members of the Baluch community, actions that can be classified as genocide and warrant investigation by the United Nations. 

Baluch minorities represent only 6% of Iran’s total population, yet they accounted for 17% of all executions last year in Iran.

Despite not facing a threat of invasion from Pakistan, Iran has mined the borders in Jalk and Kalgan, which has resulted in the death and injury of innocent civilians. Additionally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its local proxies are involved in fuel and drug trafficking.

Madam Chair 

The Baluch demand justice and urge the relevant organisations of the United Nations to hold Iran accountable for the atrocities committed by state security forces against them.

The right of a state to territorial integrity should not be absolute or unconditional when that state disregards human lives. The people of Iran have a right to exercise free will, and the Baluch people have a right to exist without fear of persecution and have the right of national self-determination.

I thank you.

Mehrab Sarjov

Mehrab Sarjov's statement during the 18th session of the United Nations Forum on Minority Issues.

https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/2503451/embedPlaykitJs/uiconf_id/49754663?iframeembed=true&entry_id=1_5d5osof3&config%5Bplayback%5D=%7B%22audioLanguage%22%3A%22en%22%7D&config%5Bui%5D=%7B%22locale%22%3A%22en%22%7D&kalturaStartTime=2408

Response of the Iranian mission to Mehrab Sarjov's statement during the 18th session of the United Nations Forum on Minority Issues.

https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/2503451/embedPlaykitJs/uiconf_id/49754663?iframeembed=true&entry_id=1_5d5osof3&config%5Bplayback%5D=%7B%22audioLanguage%22%3A%22en%22%7D&config%5Bui%5D=%7B%22locale%22%3A%22en%22%7D&kalturaStartTime=8100

The Baluch suffer from violations of civil and political right in Iran

  The theocratic regime in Tehran lacks respect for human freedom, dignity, and life. The Baluch, who number around 5 million out of Iran's 90 million population, account for approximately 40 per cent of those executed in the country. The Baloch people in Iran are ethnically Baluch and predominantly Sunni, distinguishing them from the Persian Shiite majority. In their region, they constitute a significant population. Since the formation of modern Iran, the Baluch have suffered from the redistribution of national wealth. It has to be said that all Iranian people are the victims of this fundamentalist regime, but

The Baluch suffer from violations of civil and political, cultural, and economic rights that should have been guaranteed to all citizens, regardless of their ethnicity, as well as issues related to discriminatory redistribution. On the 4th of November, Faiez Abuoshe and three other Baluch were executed InAdel Abad prison in Shiraz.

The Baluch right calls on the United Nations, the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, and intergovernmental and other relevant organisations to take action and save the lives of Iranians on death row.

The Baluch right,

Theory of the unilateral right to secede

 

Theory of the unilateral right to secede

Moral theories regarding unilateral secession can be classified into two main categories: Remedial Right and Primary Theories. Remedial Right views the right to secede as similar to the right of revolution, as understood in mainstream liberal theories of revolution. This view sees secession as a last resort for addressing persistent and grave injustices. While revolution seeks to overthrow the government, secession focuses on breaking away from a part of the state's territory to establish a new state there. 

Both the Remedial Right of unilateral secession and the mainstream liberal view of the right to revolution share a common principle: the right to act arises only under conditions of grave injustice. Just as there is no justification for revolution against a reasonably just government, there is also no unilateral right to secede from such a just state.

Different versions of the Remedial Right Only approach define the injustices that justify secession as a last resort in varying ways. Some versions recognise only situations of unjust annexation, genocide, or severe violations of fundamental human rights as valid reasons for unilateral secession. Others may also include the state's violations of intrastate autonomy arrangements for minority groups or the failure to acknowledge a legitimate claim to such autonomy.

It should be emphasised that Remedial Right Theories concern the conditions under which there is a unilateral right to secede. They support a flexible approach to negotiated or constitutional secession. Thus, Remedial Right Theories appear less conservative than expected.

Mehrab Sarjov

اصل حق تعیین سرنوشت صرفاً ابزاری برای دستیابی به امتیازات اقتصادی یا سیاسی برای نخبگان نیست

 

در برخی موارد، نخبگان گروه‌های اقلیت برای کسب نفوذ و قدرت، از اصل حق تعیین سرنوشت ملی به عنوان ابزاری برای بسیج مردم علیه دولت مرکزی استفاده می‌کنند. در این زمینه، ادعاهای مربوط به حق تعیین سرنوشت در درجه‌ی نخست وسیله‌ای برای کسب امتیازات سیاسی یا اقتصادی از دولت مرکزی محسوب می‌شود.

با مشروعیت یافتن اصل حق تعیین سرنوشت در گفتمان‌های داخلی و بین‌المللی، گروه‌های اقلیت ملی بیش از پیش ترغیب می‌شوند تا برای تضمین منافع خود از دولت‌هایشان، به این اصل استناد کنند. اقلیت‌های ملی قدرتمند، به‌ویژه آن‌هایی که دارای سابقه‌ی استقلال یا حمایت نظامی خارجی هستند، نسبت به اقلیت‌های ضعیف‌تر، احتمال بیشتری دارد که خواستار اعمال حق تعیین سرنوشت شوند.

این روند همچنین نشان می‌دهد که ادعاهای مربوط به حق تعیین سرنوشت، اغلب به‌صورت استراتژیک از سوی کسانی مطرح می‌شوند که در موقعیت چالش با دولت قرار دارند. بسیاری از جنگ‌هایی که بر سر حق تعیین سرنوشت در می‌گیرند، نه‌تنها مرگبار بلکه عمیق و ریشه‌دارتر از درگیری‌های طبقاتی، مذهبی یا ایدئولوژیک هستند.

این امر نشان می‌دهد که اصل حق تعیین سرنوشت صرفاً ابزاری برای دستیابی به امتیازات شغلی، اقتصادی یا سیاسی در چارچوب کشور موجود نیست، بلکه هدف نهایی آن، دستیابی به حاکمیت ملی است. با توجه به ماهیت فراگیر این منازعات و نقش فزاینده‌ی حق تعیین سرنوشت در بسیج گروه‌های اقلیت، سیاست‌گذاران و پژوهشگران باید توجه جدی‌تر و عمیق‌تری به این موضوع مبذول دارند.

مهراب سرجوئی

 The death of an independent state:

 People worldwide, almost countless millions, continue to cling to a state as their preferred form of political organisation. We need only recall the powerful attraction of self-determination and political independence based on the state for the people of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East during the demise of European colonialism and for the people of Eastern Europe during the demise of the Soviet empire.

 When states fragment, as in the case of Yugoslavia at the end of the Cold War, the fragments turn out to be new (in the case of Baluchistan's old one). In terms of history, all these main movements toward the sovereign state occurred recently, in the half of the twentieth century.

 Individuals' security, freedom, and prosperity are based primarily on the state and state system. Individual security does not stand on a global political or legal organisation; such an institution does not exist to protect a person's security and rights. 

Where security is dependent on other social organisations, such as family or the clan, as is happening in the Iranian-occupied Baluchistan, that is because the state has failed as an organisation. The Baluch are trying to make the best of a bad situation. Iran has failed the Baluch, but it does not mean that The Baluch have given up on the state system. The Baluch want what the people of many other states already have: a developed and democratic state for themselves. The Baluch does not stand for the revitalisation of the Persian colonial system.

Mehrab Sarjov is a political activist based in the UK, advocates for an independent Balochistan from Iran.