On Global Conflict: Robert D. Kaplan

“In 2033, global conflict will be widespread and chaotic, but not necessarily more violent. Rather than the post-Ottoman state system in the Middle East with hard borders and suffocating central control, there will be a series of weak states and sectarian and ethnic regions in tense relationships with each other. For example, Mosul in Iraq will have more in common with Damascus in Syria than with Baghdad, even as Aleppo in Syria has more in common with Baghdad in Iraq than with Damascus itself. There will be an independent and decentralized Kurdistan, a more feisty ethnic Azeri region in northwestern Iran, even as Jordan and the West Bank meld together.
In China there will be an ethnic-Han island in the center and Pacific coast living in reasonable harmony with virtually independent Inner Mongolia, Muslim-Turkic Uighurstan, and Tibet. Chinese Yunnan will be the capital of Southeast Asia. Africa will have a green revolution, while at the same time Nigeria pulverizes into several pieces.
In short, the next few decades will see the erosion of central authority in the former colonial world, which will be somewhat violent at first, before settling down into a reasonable harmony. Geography will be more crucial than ever, even as technology makes the earth smaller and more claustrophobic.”
Robert David Kaplan is an American journalist, (currently a National Correspondent for The Atlantic magazine), chief geopolitical analyst at Stratfor, and author “The Revenge of Geography.” For additional insights, go to www.RobertDKaplan.com.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2013/02/08/the-world-in-2033-big-thinkers-and-futurists-share-their-thoughts/