Iranians do not believe they lost or are losing this war

 By Mehrab Sarjov  

A political activist  

Striving for an independent Baluchistan.

Iranians do not believe they lost or are losing this war. Iranians will not change course under the threat of war; they think they can win.

The realistic paths forward include;

 -a powerful military attack to destroy Iranian civil and military infrastructure.

-support Regime change in Iran;

-Support for ethnic groups for the disintegration of Iran.

Iranian elites believe that the US, under President Trump, would not attack Iranian civil infrastructure because, in the Iranian and many Westerners' belief, this war for the US is a war of choice, and the US is already seeking a way out of this war; it is the Iranians who have been denying the US a way out. The American side would compromise on its demand.

Regime change is a complex issue; there is currently no credible opposition party to the Mullah regime. The exiled opposition lacks grassroots support and depends on foreign entities for legitimacy and funding. 

Regional groups, such as the Baluch, Kurds, and Arabs, do have grassroots support. However, many individuals within these groups struggle with self-confidence. They are uncertain about whether to advocate for maintaining a brutal state as a federal entity or to pursue full independence from Iran.

The U.S. and victims of Iranian aggression are hesitant to deploy significant military power and have struggled to unite the Iranian opposition. However, they can support the self-determination of the Baluch, Kurds, and Arabs to achieve lasting stability in the region. With adequate air support, they could remove the Mullahs and end this ongoing conflict.

Iran can inflict pain on its neighbours and the world. As long as this mindset persists in Iran, the suffering for both Iran and its neighbours will increase.

Iran is currently isolated, and there are limits to the effectiveness of pressures. There are three possible paths forward: 

1. The United States could compromise by accepting Iran as a hegemonic nuclear power, leading to a situation where the Gulf States pay a sort of tribute to Iran. 

2. The second option is to pursue regime change in Iran.

3. The third option involves supporting the rights of the Baluch, Kurdish, and Arab peoples to self-determination. 

Current situations are unsustainable; a temporary solution only prolongs the suffering of the Iranian people, the region, and the world. A nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable to everyone.