Kahn’s Nuclear Exports: Was There

Khan’s Nuclear Exports: Was There
a State Strategy?
Iran.
The issue of transfers to Iran is complex. To this day,
it remains difficult to tell the exact degree of implication
of the various Pakistani centres of power in decisions
related to the sharing of nuclear technologies with
Tehran. One individual played a central role: Mirza
Aslam Beg, Vice Chief of Army Staff (VCoAS, 1987-
88), then CoAS from August 1988 until August 1991.18
There seem to have been three different phases.
Phase 1: 1986-88. First, beginning in 1986 there was
a period of limited cooperation probably approved
by general Zia-ul-Haq himself. In November 1986,
the Pakistani press reported that Zia had answered
favorably to an Iranian request for nuclear cooperation.19
A secret bilateral agreement was signed between the
Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) and its
Iranian counterpart in 1987, which provided inter alia
for the training of Iranian scientists.20 A. Q. Khan’s
dealings with Iran started at the same time. He may
have visited Iran as early as January 1987.21 Later
18
that year, a negotiation took place in Dubai for the
selling of P1 centrifuge diagrams, an enrichment plant
diagram, and spare parts for at least one P1 machine
(but probably many more, since the offer involved
2,000 machines).22
President Zia, it seems, had authorized the
initiation of bilateral nuclear cooperation while asking
for it to remain limited.23 He did not want Iran to get
the bomb. He was wary of A. Q. Khan whom he saw
as “politically naïve and a publicity seeker”; he was
reportedly upset when Khan upstaged him in the
famous 1987 interview that revealed to the world that
Pakistan had the bomb.24
Khan was reportedly telling military authorities that
the transfers were of very limited importance, since they
concerned only used and or obsolete equipment. 25 He
probably felt “covered” by Zia’s approval for limited
nuclear technology transfers to Iran. But he may also
have been encouraged by general Mirza Aslam Beg, in
his capacity as Army Vice Chief of Staff, who was ready
to do more, and was probably in a position to do so: he
was in fact the real CoAS, since Zia was also President.
Beg reports that emissaries from Iran first approached
Pakistan near the end of the Iran-Iraq war, with broad
requests for military sales, which were, according to
him, denied by President Zia. This is consistent with
what a former Pakistani ambassador to Iran reported,
namely that Zia refused to abide by an Iranian request
made in Tehran in January 1988 for mastery of the fuel
cycle.26
Phase 2: 1988-91. After Zia’s death, the two parties
may have envisioned a more complete cooperation,
under pressure from general Beg, but probably with
the knowledge of political authorities. A. Q. Khan was
certainly encouraged to act in this direction by General
19
Beg and President Khan when they abruptly came to
power after Zia’s death in August 1988. According
to a Pakistani account, A. Q. Khan’s first move when
Benazir Bhutto came to power (December 1988) was to
ask her to make him PAEC director; when she refused,
he chose to place his loyalty with Beg and G. I. Khan.27
General Beg came back from a February 1990 visit
to Iran with assurances from Tehran regarding support
for Pakistan about Kashmir.28 He has mentioned an
Iranian request for the bomb made in Islamabad
that same year.29 He has consistently denied having
approved such transfers, but has confirmed the scope
of nuclear discussions between Tehran and Islamabad
at the time. According to him, the contacts had been
made at Iran’s initiative; he and Benazir Bhutto
(who remained Prime minister until August 1990)
were playing “ping-pong” with their interlocutors,
constantly telling them to go and see the other party.30
A former U.S. administration official, Henry Rowen,
says that Beg threatened in January 1990 to transfer
military usage nuclear technology should Washington
stop arms sales to Pakistan.31 A. Q. Khan himself says
that the transfers were explicitly authorized by Beg. 32
There is evidence that Benazir Bhutto’s government
knew about this cooperation. She was told in 1989 by
Hashemi Rafsandjani that the Pakistani military had
offered nuclear technology to Iran, and that Rafsandjani
wanted her approval—which she says she did not give.33
(According to Beg, she told him that the Iranians had
offered four billion dollars for nuclear technology.34) A.
Q. Khan says that the transfers were in fact encouraged
by the military adviser to Mrs. Bhutto, General Imtiaz
Ali.35 And one meeting in Karachi between Khan and
the Iranians reportedly took place at the request of
another Bhutto adviser.36 Mrs. Bhutto says that by 1989
20
she had made her way into the inner circle of nuclear
decisionmaking.37 She had been extensively briefed on
her own country’s program by the U.S. administration
during her June 1989 visit to Washington.38 (Former
U.S. Ambassador Dennis Kux confirms that she was
probably “in the loop” until early 1990.39) In fact, her
knowledge of nuclear transfers may also have been a
factor in her dismissal. She was pressed hard by the
United States about Pakistan’s nuclear program. In the
summer of 1990, she became seen as a problem, and A.
Q. Khan reportedly asked Beg for her sacking.40 Thus,
even though there is no evidence that Mrs. Bhutto
approved any transfer, she was aware of Iran-Pakistan
discussions; and some of her advisers may have given
the nod to Beg and Khan.
Phase three: 1991-95. In a third phase, the two
countries seem to have begun a closer cooperation, in
line with a growing convergence of interests.
Two events changed Pakistani perspective. One was
the invasion of Kuwait. The other was the imposition
of U.S. sanctions under the Pressler amendment, which
became inevitable on October 1, as U.S. President
George Bush refused to certify that Pakistan did not
have a military program.
An Iranian-Pakistani nuclear cooperation was
coherent with General Beg’s strategic choices. Beg
initially approved Pakistan’s participation in the
coalition against Iraq; but by the end of 1990, he
changed his mind and made it public in late January
1991.41 He actively sought a partnertship with Iran
in order to protect both countries against the United
States.42 (He ended up grudgingly accepting Pakistani
participation in the coalition as long as it was limited
to the defense of Saudi Arabia.) Political reasons were
not the only ones at play. General Beg and others
21
thought it was a good way to finance the defense
budget and Interservice Intelligence (ISI) operations in
Afghanistan and Kashmir, especially in light of coming
U.S. sanctions. Several former officials of Nawaz
Sharif’s first government (November 1990-July 1993)
have separately confirmed that in 1991, General Beg
tried to convince Mr. Sharif to undertake large-scale
nuclear cooperation with Iran.43
There were indeed high-level contacts to that effect
between the two governments during 1991. Envoys of
Hashemi Rafsanjani (including Mohsen Rezai, head
of the Pasdarans from 1981 until 1987) visited Sharif
in February and July 1991. Pakistani authorities have
confirmed that Beg was involved in transfers to Iran
in 1991.44 In November 1991, general Asif Nawaz (who
had succeeded Beg in August) went himself to Tehran;
meanwhile, Beijing reportedly gave its blessing to
Iran-Pakistan cooperation.45 General Beg himself has
confirmed that contacts with Iran continued after
Benazir Bhutto’s departure in August 1990.46
It is difficult to know with certainty what became
of these projects. Some claim that Pakistan and Iran
did agree on nuclear cooperation and discussed the
possibility of a mutual defense treaty.47 According
to Beg, an agreement was indeed reached in 1991
for nuclear cooperation in return for conventional
weapons and oil.48 However, several sources have
stated that the Pakistani political authorities refused to
go ahead. One claims that president G. I. Khan sought
Sharif’s approval for the deal; when he refused, the
deal was abandoned.49 According to U.S. Ambassador
Robert Oakley, Nawaz Sharif and G. I. Khan told
Rafsanjani that Pakistan would not implement the 1991
agreement.50
22
What is clear is that the bilateral cooperation that
was envisioned by the two countries was a two-way
street; it did not concern only nuclear technology,
but also conventional arms, probably oil, as well as
mutual political support. In the nuclear realm, the
known transfers of that period involved diagrams for
P1 and P2 centrifuges, and 500 used P1 centrifuges in
a disassembled form. (Three actual P2 machines may
also have been delivered.51) The negotiation for these
purchases took place in the fall of 1993, and the deal
was reportedly struck in October 1994.52 The goods
were delivered in 1994 and 1995. They included a
document describing, inter alia, “the casting of enriched
and depleted uranium metal into hemispheres, related
to the fabrication of nuclear weapons components.”53
According to a reported IAEA account, no less
than 13 meetings took place between Tehran and
representatives of the network in the years 1994 to
1999.54 Some shipments reportedly took place after
1995, perhaps as late as 2000.55
This second influx of Pakistani technology to Iran
took place during Mrs. Bhutto’s second mandate
(October 1993-November 1996). Given the extent of
government-to-government contacts, it certainly took
place with the knowledge of several key authorities.
She has confirmed that an offer had taken place and
that there was a debate in Pakistan’s ruling circles
about it.56
The full scope of Pakistani exports and transfers
to Iran—be they envisioned, planned or realized—is
probably not yet known. Several questions still need to
be addressed. Did the infamous “Chinese blueprint”
for a nuclear weapon ever find its way into Iran? How
many P1 spare parts and P2 parts (ring magnets in
particular) were actually delivered to Iran by the Khan
23
network?57 Given the similarities between the Pakistani
Khushab reactor and the planned Iranian Arak reactor,was there any Pakistani help involved?
Khan’s motivations were complex and evolved
over time. They cannot be reduced to a single factor.
According to David Sanger, “to understand A. Q. Khan,
you have to understand ego, greed, nationalism, and
Islamic identity.”130 A first motivation was to ensure
his personal role and legitimacy in Pakistan’s nuclear
program: Transfers were the counterpart of imports
made for the sake of the Pakistani program, or of
financial assistance given to Pakistan by countries such
as Libya or Saudi Arabia. A. Q. Khan also reportedly
wanted to deflect attention from Pakistan.131 He said
in his debriefing sessions that he thought that “the
emergence of more nuclear states would ease Western
attention on Pakistan.”132 A second motivation, which
seems to have gained in importance over time, was
pure and simple greed. Supply created demand: Excess
inventories of centrifuges and spare parts (notably P1
centrifuges, since they were being replaced by P2s)
were looking for customers. A third element was
pure and simple hubris. A. Q. Khan was a man who
enjoyed defying authority and norms. He talked about
centrifugation technology as if it was his own property.
This is where the Islamic dimension comes into play:
He may have been willing to be recognized as the one
who gave the Bomb to the Umma. He reportedly said
that his transfers “would help the Muslim cause.”133
That said, some of those who know him say A. Q. Khan
34
is not an Islamist, and that he emphasized his faith to
bolster his support in the country. A. Q. Khan may
simply have wanted to “defy the West”—given that all
known customers were on unfriendly terms with the
United States and Europe.

Conclusion

Some argue, however, that Pakistani nuclear
exports do reflected a consistent State policy. According
to Simon Henderson, there were two successive
Pakistani strategies. First was a strategy of exchanges
or barters: one with China (centrifuge technology for
HEU and bomb design), and one with North Korea
(centrifuge technology for ballistic missiles). Second
was a strategy designed to blackmail the United States,
through exports to Muslim States.148 Alternatively,
different actors of the Pakistani leadership may have
had different strategies.
m.sarjov
Type: Book
Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War. Edited by Mr. Henry D. Sokolski.